---
name: review-forecast-risk
description: A deal-by-deal stress test of the commit, with the specific deals that decide whether the number lands.
license: MIT
metadata:
  author: The Revenue AI Report
  version: 1.0.0
  last-reviewed: 2026-09-04
  source: https://www.therevenueaireport.com/skills/review-forecast-risk
---

# Review Forecast Risk

A deal-by-deal stress test of the commit, with the specific deals that decide whether the number lands.

## When to use this skill

- Before you commit a number upward.
- The week before the board meeting.
- Any period where last period's forecast missed by more than ten percent.

## Inputs to collect

- Your commit and best-case lists with amounts and close dates
- One line per deal: why it closes
- Last period's forecast accuracy

## Process

1. List the commit deals with the reason each closes.
2. Run the stress test. Read the evidence-missing column first.
3. Send managers to get the missing evidence on the five deciding deals.
4. Set the commit at what survives the stress test, not what the target wants.
5. Record the call so next period's accuracy is measurable.

## Decision rules

- A deal stays in commit only if the buyer has confirmed the process and date in their words.
- If two of the five deciding deals lack evidence, the range, not the commit, goes to the board.
- Missed two periods running? The process changes before the next commit, not just the deals.

## Output requirements

- Per-deal risk note with missing evidence.
- The five deciding deals ranked.
- Commit, honest range, and the board-ready sentence.

## Quality checks

- Every commit deal has buyer-confirmed process and date.
- The range reflects evidence, not optimism.
- The call is recorded for accuracy tracking.

## Limitations

- It reads the notes you give it. It cannot verify that a champion told the truth.
- Point-in-time. A single slip on one deciding deal invalidates the read.

## Example input

Commit $1.4M across 9 deals. Deal A $300k: champion says paper process started. Deal B $220k: waiting on legal since the 12th. Last period: forecast missed by 14%.

## Example output

Commit holds at $1.1M. Range to the board: $0.9M to $1.3M. Deal A lacks proof that procurement has the paper; get the confirmation email or move it to best case. Deal B is a legal queue risk; ask legal for the position in line, in writing.

## Review checklist

- Is each commit deal buyer-confirmed?
- Did the deciding deals get evidence requests?
- Is the range what you would defend in a board meeting?

## Works with

- Playbook: AI assisted pipeline hygiene checklist (L1) (revops, L1) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/playbooks/revops-pipeline-hygiene-checklist-l1
- Playbook: Make conversation data do work (L3) (sales, L3) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/playbooks/conversation-data-to-work-l3
- Playbook: Frontline manager operating system (L6) (enablement, L6) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/playbooks/enablement-manager-operating-system-l6
- Tool: Aviso (Sales & Revenue Intelligence) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/tools/aviso
- Tool: BoostUp (Sales & Revenue Intelligence) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/tools/boostup
- Tool: InsightSquared (Sales & Revenue Intelligence) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/tools/insightsquared
- Tool: Ebsta (Sales & Revenue Intelligence) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/tools/ebsta
- Tool: Forecastio (Sales & Revenue Intelligence) https://www.therevenueaireport.com/tools/forecastio

## Rules of conduct

- Write for a Director, VP, or operator. Short sentences. Explain uncommon terms.
- Separate facts from assumptions. Never hide uncertainty.
- Do not invent numbers, benchmarks, quotes, or customer names.
- Do not send messages, change CRM records, or publish anything unless the user explicitly asks.
- Flag when a decision needs human review.

## Evidence

This skill is grounded in The Revenue AI Report research:
- https://www.therevenueaireport.com/research/proof-gap
- Related analysis: https://www.therevenueaireport.com/blog/pipeline-truth-test-for-ai




Source and updates: https://www.therevenueaireport.com/skills/review-forecast-risk