Methodology
Proof Gap Index Methodology
The Proof Gap Index methodology defines how the quarterly aggregate Proof Gap reading is calculated: the formula, the spend and pipeline definitions, the incrementality requirement, and the thresholds that trigger action. Published by The Revenue AI Report.
By Jonathan Kvarfordt, Founder and Principal Analyst
What the Index measures
The Proof Gap Index is the median Proof Gap across The Revenue AI Report respondent panel in a given quarter, cut by revenue function. It is a benchmark: an organization compares its own quarterly Proof Gap to the panel median for its seat and size band. The dataset lives at /data/proof-gap-index.
The formula
Proof Gap = (Total AI Spend in Quarter) / (AI-Influenced Pipeline in Quarter). The Index is the median of this ratio across all qualifying respondents in a seat.
What counts as AI spend
- AI platform contracts: Agentforce, HubSpot AI, Salesforce Einstein, and equivalent
- AI seat licenses across the revenue stack
- AI-specific professional services
- Internal headcount hours dedicated to AI enablement, valued at loaded cost
What counts as AI-influenced pipeline
Net-new pipeline where an AI touch is verifiable in the CRM record and where incrementality can be established. Incrementality means the pipeline would not have been generated without the AI touch. The standard test: would a comparable cohort without the AI touch have produced the same pipeline? If yes, it does not count.
What does not count
- Time-savings estimates
- Self-reported productivity claims
- Pipeline sourced by humans and merely logged by AI
- Renewal or expansion pipeline where AI touched only the paperwork
The rolling four-quarter view
Single-quarter Proof Gaps are noisy. The Index reports the rolling four-quarter median alongside the single-quarter median. Board reporting uses the rolling view.
Diagnostic thresholds
- Under 1.0x: defensible
- 1.0x to 4.0x: watch
- Over 4.0x on a rolling four-quarter basis: triggers a Reversal Ledger review
Reporting
The Index publishes quarterly with a one-quarter lag to allow verification. Panel composition is published alongside the Index so readers can assess comparability.
Frequently asked questions
How is the Proof Gap Index calculated?
The median of Total AI Spend divided by AI-Influenced Pipeline across all qualifying respondents in a seat, per quarter, with a rolling four-quarter view.
What is a good Proof Gap?
Under 1.0x is defensible. Over 4.0x on a rolling four-quarter basis triggers a Reversal Ledger review.
How do I join the respondent panel?
Apply through /contact. Panel members submit quarterly spend and pipeline data under source protection and receive the full Index before publication.
Why the incrementality requirement?
Without it, every AI tool claims credit for pipeline the human team would have generated anyway. Incrementality is what makes the number defensible to a CFO.
How is the Index different from vendor-published ROI studies?
Vendor ROI studies measure the vendor's own customers using the vendor's own definitions. The Index measures a cross-vendor panel using one fixed definition set.
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