Planning Renewals and Expansion

• Source: Report research library
• Frameworks applied: SaaS Capital NRR/GRR definitions and ACV-band benchmarks, Rework land-and-expand five expansion vectors and expansion triggers, Clari separate renewal and expansion forecast models, pilot and POC conversion criteria

Hard risk-category taxonomy with entry conditions plus headroom-ranked attention allocation, and renewal and expansion forecast separately.

Known weakness, published as found: The 'New-land design' section applies to a minority of invocations and is not referenced from the workflow checklist: gate it explicitly ('read only when the plan requires a new land'). De-duplicate the SaaS Capital retention block that is repeated verbatim in preventing-churn, modeling-saas-revenue-metrics, and EBR.

1. 1.Copy the SKILL.md text below, or download the raw file.
2. 2.Create a folder named exactly planning-renewals-and-expansion in your agent's skills directory.
3. 3.Save the file inside that folder as SKILL.md.
4. 4.Ask the agent one of the trigger requests below.
5. 5.Check the output against what you already know before it leaves your desk.

• Build a renewal forecast for my book next quarter with risk categories per account
• How do I run a land-and-expand motion on this account — we landed with one team at 15K
• We need NRR at 115%, which accounts have the headroom and what is the multi-year roadmap?

• Design the weighted health score inputs and thresholds for our SMB segment
• This customer went dark after onboarding, what is the save play?

---
name: planning-renewals-and-expansion
description: >-
  Builds a renewal forecast with explicit risk categories and timeline
  milestones, then sequences a land-and-expand motion using named expansion
  vectors and trigger criteria to move NRR. Use when the user says renewal
  forecast, renewal pipeline, NRR forecast, "will this account renew",
  land and expand, expansion playbook, account expansion plan, upsell
  planning, "how do we grow this account", "multi-year account roadmap",
  "which accounts are ready to expand", or asks how to model renewals
  separately from new business. Use this skill whenever the task is
  forecasting renewal dollars or sequencing growth inside an existing
  account. Do NOT use for designing the health score (see
  scoring-customer-health), for at-risk diagnosis and save plays (see
  preventing-churn), or for building the customer-facing review deck (see
  running-executive-business-reviews).
metadata:
  version: "1.0"
---

# Planning renewals and expansion

Produce a renewal forecast with categorized risk and a dated expansion sequence for each account in the book. One job: the forecast and the growth plan. Health-score construction, churn save plays, and the review deck itself are out of scope.

Model renewal and expansion as **two separate forecasts**, because expansion has its own conversion patterns and cycle lengths and averaging them hides both ([Clari](https://www.clari.com/blog/sales-forecasting-methods/)).

## Workflow

Copy this checklist into your reply and tick items as you complete them:

```
- [ ] 1. Assemble the renewal base and required inputs
- [ ] 2. Assign every renewal a risk category
- [ ] 3. Build the renewal forecast and check it against GRR benchmarks
- [ ] 4. Score expansion readiness against the five triggers
- [ ] 5. Choose an expansion vector per ready account
- [ ] 6. Sequence a dated multi-period roadmap
- [ ] 7. Validate the combined forecast; fix and re-validate
```

**1. Assemble inputs.** Required inputs for a renewal and expansion forecast, all five: contract end dates, health scores, product-usage signals, expansion indicators, and the NRR target ([Clari](https://www.clari.com/blog/sales-forecasting-methods/)). Missing contract end dates is the most common blocker; without them there is no forecast period, only a list.

Use the exact retention definitions so the number is comparable to benchmarks. NRR is the current-period MRR from customers who existed in the prior period, divided by total prior-period MRR. GRR uses the same formula excluding upsells, cross-sells, and price increases — cap each customer's later-period MRR at its prior-period MRR. GRR cannot exceed 100%, and churn = 1 − GRR ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)).

**2. Assign risk categories.** Every renewal gets exactly one category. This is a non-negotiable taxonomy, because a forecast where reps invent their own labels cannot be rolled up:

| Category | Entry condition | Forecast treatment |
|---|---|---|
| **Committed** | Health band Healthy, exec sponsor confirmed, no open blocking issue, budget confirmed | Full ARR |
| **Likely** | Healthy or upper At Risk, sponsor engaged, one open non-blocking issue | Full ARR, flagged |
| **At risk** | At Risk band, or declining usage trend, or unresolved escalation, or sponsor unresponsive 30+ days | Discount per historical save rate for this category |
| **Critical** | Critical band, sponsor departed, competitive evaluation confirmed, or explicit non-renewal signal | Exclude from commit; forecast the downside |
| **Downsell expected** | Renewal probable but seat or tier reduction stated or strongly indicated | Forecast at the reduced amount, not full ARR |

Validate the category against activity, not against rep assertion — the named failure of stage-based forecasting is inflated stages with no activity-verification layer ([Clari](https://www.clari.com/blog/sales-forecasting-methods/)). Require, for Committed, a logged executive interaction within the last 60 days.

**3. Build the renewal forecast and sanity-check it.** Compute forecast GRR from the categorized base and compare against benchmarks before presenting. Median GRR across more than 1,000 private B2B SaaS companies is **91%**, and the stated floor is **GRR at least 90%** to have a shot at performance parity with peers ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)). Median GRR is roughly flat across ACV bands — 90% under $12k, 91% at $12k-$25k and $25k-$50k, 90% at $50k-$100k, 91% at $100k-$250k, and 95% above $250k ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)). A forecast landing far above the band median for your ACV needs a stated reason, because the default explanation is optimistic categorization.

**4. Score expansion readiness.** An account is expansion-ready only when at least one of the five triggers is present: a usage threshold reached, success metrics proven, the champion ready to make the introduction, budget-cycle timing, or alignment with a strategic initiative ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)). Do not push expansion prematurely — forcing expansion before readiness creates resistance and damages the relationship ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

Judgment step — you allocate attention. Decision criterion: rank by **remaining expansion headroom**, not by current ARR. A $20k account with $500k of expansion potential warrants more attention than a $100k account already maxed out, and a $50k account with 200% expansion potential is worth more than a fully-penetrated $100k account ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

**5. Choose a vector.** Pick the vector that matches the account's structure rather than the largest theoretical deal:

| Vector | Motion | When it is the right pick |
|---|---|---|
| **Horizontal** | Same use case, new team or department | Fastest path: similar implementation, known ROI, champion can introduce |
| **Vertical** | Same department, up or down the org | When the goal is executive sponsorship and converting tactical wins into a strategic relationship |
| **Geographic** | Same company, new region | Replicable rollout; can jump in large steps after central approval |
| **Product** | Add a product to an existing footprint | Trust established; cross-sell is easier than upsell when products complement |
| **Depth** | Move up product tiers | Minimal change management; natural progression with clear value increase |

([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model))

Most accounts run several vectors at once, and a combined horizontal + vertical + depth sequence typically plays out over **2-3 years** ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

**6. Sequence a dated roadmap.** Give every expansion a target period, an amount, and a prerequisite. Published worked example: Year 1 lands Sales Ops at 10 users / **$15K**, expands to the full sales team at 50 users / **$50K**, adds CS at 20 users / **+$20K**, ending at **$70K ARR**; Year 2 upgrades tier **+$30K**, adds EMEA **+$30K**, adds a second product **+$40K**, and a module **+$10K**, ending at **$180K ARR**; Year 3 targets **$400K+ ARR** ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)). The stated overall benchmark for a mastered model is **200-400% account growth over 3-5 years**; the source cites no data behind those growth figures, so use them as an ambition ceiling, not a plan input ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

**7. Validate the combined forecast, fix, re-validate.** Run all six checks. Fix every failure and re-run the full set; only publish the forecast when all six pass:

```
- [ ] Every renewal has a contract end date and exactly one risk category
- [ ] Every Committed renewal has an exec interaction logged within 60 days
- [ ] Implied GRR is within 5pp of the ACV-band median, or has a written reason
- [ ] Expansion is forecast separately from renewal, with its own cycle length
- [ ] Every expansion line names a trigger, a vector, and a prerequisite
- [ ] Renewals due within one cycle length of today are already in motion
```

Any renewal inside its own cycle length with no activity is not a forecast entry, it is a discovery item; move it to At risk until contact is re-established.

## New-land design when the expansion path starts from zero

When the plan requires a new land inside a target account, design the landing offer for speed: lower price than the full solution, decision in weeks rather than months, limited approvals, minimal procurement complexity. A **$15,000 / 10-user / one-department** contract completes quickly, while a **$200,000** enterprise-wide deployment can sit in legal, procurement, and executive review for six months ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

Set the landing timeline explicitly: week 1 kickoff and setup, weeks 2-3 core configuration and data import, weeks 4-6 training and initial usage, weeks 6-8 first results visible, weeks 8-12 optimization and success metrics ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)). Target clear value within three months; still configuring at month four is the stated failure warning ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

For pilots and POCs, define success criteria upfront. Pilots run **60-90 days** and convert to paid at **60-70%** when success criteria are well defined; without clear criteria they drift and fail. POCs run **30-60 days** on one specific business problem, and POCs without clear success criteria become experiments that never end and never convert ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).

## Output format

Produce the plan in this exact structure — the renewal table and expansion table are consumed separately by forecasting and by CS planning, so keep them distinct. Content inside cells is yours.

```
# Renewal and expansion plan — <segment/book> — <period>
NRR target: <n>%   Current NRR: <n>%   Current GRR: <n>%   ACV band: <band>

## Renewal forecast
| Account | ARR | End date | Health | Risk category | Forecast $ | Blocking issue | Next step (dated) |
Totals: committed <$> | likely <$> | at risk <$> | critical <$> | downsell <$>
Implied GRR: <n>%   ACV-band median GRR: <n>%   Variance reason: <text or n/a>

## Expansion forecast (modeled separately)
| Account | Trigger present | Vector | Target amount | Target period | Prerequisite | Owner |
Total expansion forecast: <$>   Implied NRR: <n>%

## Multi-period roadmap (top accounts by headroom)
| Account | Period | Move | Amount | Cumulative ARR |

## Attention allocation
Ranked by remaining headroom, not current ARR:
| Rank | Account | Current ARR | Headroom | Rationale |
```

## Gotchas

- GRR and NRR answer different questions and must be managed with different resources. GRR shows little direct correlation with growth and is treated as table stakes, while moving NRR from the 100-110% band to the 110-120% band is associated with a **9 percentage point** improvement in growth rate ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)). A CS budget spent entirely on saves buys a floor, not growth.
- Median NRR is **101%** overall, which means the median company barely expands past its churn ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)). A plan targeting 130% NRR without a named vector per account is aspiration, not a forecast; the reference point for a strong outcome is net dollar retention settling around **110-120%** ([ICONIQ Growth](https://www.iconiq.com/growth/reports/2025-state-of-software)).
- In every ACV band except above $250k, at least a quarter of companies are contracting, and the 25th-to-75th percentile spread is widest in the **$12k-$25k** band ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)). Forecasting a low-ACV book with a single blended rate hides the tail that produces the miss.
- A low land-to-expansion rate means you are landing in the wrong places or failing to prove value during the land; slow time to first expansion means poor landing execution or weak expansion triggers ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)). Diagnose the land before adding expansion headcount.
- A landing account with no champion resets every expansion to zero. The champion must get personal value, hold organizational credibility, be willing to advocate for expansion, and be able to reach other stakeholders; without one, each expansion requires starting from scratch ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).
- Contract structure moves the number independently of CS effort: multi-year runs **103% NRR / 94% GRR**, annual **101% / 90%**, month-to-month **100% / 89%** ([SaaS Capital](https://www.saas-capital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RB32WS1-2025-B2B-SaaS-Retention-Benchmarks.pdf)). Term extension is a retention lever, not only a pricing lever.
- Avoid landing in a department with no budget, no influence, no connections, and no viable expansion path — the land will renew and never grow, consuming CSM capacity at zero headroom ([Rework](https://resources.rework.com/libraries/post-sale-management/land-and-expand-model)).
- Deal-age discipline transfers to renewals: an open renewal aged past twice the average renewal cycle length should be discounted or removed from the commit rather than rolled forward ([Clari](https://www.clari.com/blog/sales-forecasting-methods/)).

What does the Planning Renewals and Expansion skill do?

Forecasts renewals with explicit risk categories and sequences land-and-expand growth against NRR targets

Where does the Planning Renewals and Expansion skill come from?

Report research library. It was written by The Revenue AI Report against a 12 criterion quality rubric and graded in an independent scoring pass.

Why was the Planning Renewals and Expansion skill chosen for this library?

Hard risk-category taxonomy with entry conditions plus headroom-ranked attention allocation, and renewal and expansion forecast separately.

When should the Planning Renewals and Expansion skill not be used?

Do not use it for: Design the weighted health score inputs and thresholds for our SMB segment Or: This customer went dark after onboarding, what is the save play?

How do I install the Planning Renewals and Expansion SKILL.md file?

Download the file, create a folder named exactly planning-renewals-and-expansion inside your agent's skills directory, and save the file inside it as SKILL.md. The agent loads it when a request matches the description.